Month: September 2016

Your Weekly Roundup of Climate and Energy News for the week ending September 23, 2016 follows.  Please forward it to anyone you think might be interested.  For an archive of prior posts visit the CAAV website.  It also contains news of events in the Central Shenandoah Valley as well as activities in which CAAV is involved.

“On September 20, 2016, 375 members of the National Academy of Sciences, including 30 Nobel laureates, published an open letter to draw attention to the serious risks of climate change. The letter warns that the consequences of opting out of the Paris agreement would be severe and long-lasting for our planet’s climate and for the international credibility of the United States.”

Oral arguments on the legality of the Clean Power Plan will be heard on Tuesday, September 27 before the Court of Appeals of the D.C. Circuit.  Judge Nina Pillard, who was appointed by President Obama, has been added to the list of judges hearing the case, bringing the number of judges appointed by Democrats to six.  Four justices have been appointed by Republicans.  Bloomberg has a summary of what you need to know about the case.  The Environmental Defense Fund’s Martha Roberts summarizes the health implications of the plan.

Climate

I mentioned last week that NASA had declared August to be tied with July as the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1880.  Now NOAA has declared that not only was August a record breaker, it extended the streak of record-breaking hottest months to 16.  In addition, the summer period (June through August) was also the warmest on record, 0.07°C warmer than the summer of 2015, the previous record holder.  Of course, a major question is what will happen in the future.  NASA climate scientist Gavin Schmidt had an interesting post entitled “Why We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month but We Know It’ll Be Hot All Year.”

Thirty-one additional countries joined the Paris climate agreement on Wednesday, bringing the total to 60, thereby exceeding one of the thresholds for the agreement to go into effect.  The other threshold is that the countries joining have cumulative CO₂ emissions exceeding 55% of the global total.  The 60 countries that have joined so far have cumulative emissions just below 48%, but U.N. Secretary General Ban Ki-moon and U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry expressed confidence that the 55% threshold would be passed before the end of the year.  On Thursday, EU climate commissioner Miguel Arias Canete said that the EU is on course to join the agreement during October, thereby bringing cumulative emissions above the required 55%.

A new study, published in Science Advances, has found that ice melt on Greenland has been underestimated by around 8%.  It turns out that Greenland has been rebounding faster than had been thought in response to glacial melting.  Consequently, past estimates of the impacts of post-glacial rebound led to inaccurate estimates of the amount of ice loss.  The study also suggests that the rapid ice loss recorded by satellite measurements over the last 20 years is not likely to be an anomaly, but part of a long-term trend influenced by climate change.

A new modeling study in the journal Nature Communications suggests that during the mid-Pliocene warm period, when the CO₂ content of the atmosphere was around 400 ppm (like today) and the temperature was 1-2°C warmer than today, the entire West Antarctic ice sheet had melted, driving some 10 ft of sea level rise.  In addition, the multi-kilometer thick ice that currently fills the extremely deep Aurora and Wilkes basins of the eastern ice sheet had retreated inland for hundreds of miles, driving sea level even higher.  This raises the question of whether we are in for similar events.

Complex Earth system models are used to make projections of future climate as CO₂ continues to be discharged to the atmosphere.  In those models, atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are determined by the balance between the sources and sinks of the gas.  One sink is the soil.  A new study published in the journal Science suggests that scientists have overestimated the rate at which Earth’s soils take up CO₂.  As a consequence, soil’s carbon sequestration potential this century may be only half of what we thought it was, suggesting that reducing the concentration of CO₂ in the atmosphere will be harder than we had thought.

President Obama signed a directive on Wednesday telling 20 federal offices to develop a “federal climate and national security working group” to “identify the U.S. national security priorities related to climate change and national security, and develop methods to share climate science and intelligence information to inform national security policies and plans.”  Also on Wednesday, the National Intelligence Council released a report that states “Over 20 years, the net effects of climate change on the patterns of global human movement and statelessness could be dramatic, perhaps unprecedented.  If unanticipated, they could overwhelm government infrastructure and resources, and threaten the social fabric of communities.”

The Montreal Protocol of 1987 outlawed chlorofluorocarbons because of their negative impact on the ozone layer.  The major replacements for them as refrigerants were hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), which subsequently were found to have global warming potentials of up to almost 15,000 CO₂ equivalents.  Now a loose coalition of more than 100 countries is working toward an early phase-out of HFCs.

Last week I included a study on the effects of increased temperature on wheat production.  This week a new study on the effects of both temperature and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations on the types of plants that grow in California grasslands was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.  It found that CO₂ levels above 400 ppm (the concentration today) had no effect, while higher temperatures had a negative effect.  In other words, CO₂ fertilization did not offset the negative effects of higher temperatures.  In addition, a study published in Nature Communications, used a new approach combining standard climate change models with maximum land productivity data to predict how the potential productivity of cropland is likely to change over the next 50-100 years as a result of climate change.

Energy

A new study by think tank Oil Change International (OCI) shows that burning the known fossil fuels in all coal mines or oil and gas fields currently existing or under construction would release sufficient CO₂ to push global average temperatures above the 2°C limit agreed upon in Paris.  Bill McKibben’s thoughts on this new study are in the New Republic.  On Thursday presidential candidate Donald Trump gave the keynote address at Shale Insights, an annual conference sponsored by the Marcellus Shale Coalition, a Pennsylvania-based pro-drilling group.  In his speech Trump reiterated his policy proposals that would open up vast regions of the United States to fossil fuel production.

Chevrolet this week confirmed the price of the all-electric Bolt at $37,495 and Brian Fung of The Washington Post had a chance to drive it.  His impressions are here.  Speaking of cars, the Rocky Mountain Institute issued a “truly sweeping report” on their future this week that forecasts that “peak car ownership in the United States will occur around 2020 and will drop quickly after that.”  This forecast depends on how rapidly autonomous vehicles are developed and electrification occurs, things that are likely to occur faster in urban areas than in the rest of the country.  It will be interesting to see what happens.

How low can it go?  According to the Abu Dhabi Electricity and Water Authority, six development teams competing for a 350-megawatt solar PV project offered preliminary bids below 4 cents per kilowatt-hour.  One coalition – Jinko Solar and Marubeni – offered a bid of 2.4 cents.  This is a new record low.

On Tuesday, Sustainable Development Technology Canada announced a project to link three widely dispersed microgrids in Toronto, Nova Scotia, and upstate Maine into a “transactive energy” framework.  Transactive energy is “the use of technical and economic signals to manage the exchange of electricity” and is one example of how systems with a large amount of distributed energy can be managed.  Perhaps if China had such a system it would be able to get more of its electricity from the many wind turbines it has installed.

On Wednesday, the U.S. House Ways and Means Committee passed legislation that would remove the requirement that newly-built nuclear power plants be in service by 2020 in order to receive a tax credit for producing power.  The legislation would likely benefit two reactors under construction at the Virgil C. Summer Nuclear Generating Station in South Carolina, which are at risk of missing the 2020 deadline.  Meanwhile, developers of the reactors say that recent refinancing will help to reduce cost overruns.

Your Weekly Roundup of Climate and Energy News for the week ending September 16, 2016 follows.  Please share it with anyone you think might be interested.

If you’re a fan of Tom Toles, the political cartoonist for The Washington Post, you may be interested to know that he and climate scientist Michael Mann have written a book entitled The Madhouse Effect: How Climate Change Denial Is Threatening Our Planet, Destroying Our Politics, and Driving Us Crazy.  The book is liberally illustrated with Toles’ great cartoons about climate change.  They also have a piece in the Post about “The Deniers Club.”

Writing on Think Progress, Natasha Geiling reports on the likely impacts of Donald Trump’s economic plan, released on Thursday, on the climate.  A consortium of scientific organizations compiled a list of 20 questions about science, engineering, technology, health and environmental issues for the four presidential candidates.  Scientific American has compiled and published their answers.  Section 3 deals with climate change.

Climate

August has tied July for the distinction of being the hottest month since record-keeping began in 1880, NASA said in a news release on Monday.

Polar bears use sea ice as their main hunting grounds, waiting near the edge and grabbing seals as they surface for air.  A new study in the journal The Cryosphere helps explain why the bears have been having a difficult time.  It turns out that there has been a decline in the number of ice-covered days in every region of the Arctic where the bears live.  In fact, 2016 turned out to be tied with 2007 for second place in minimum ice extent.  On a related note, scientists at a Russian weather station on Troynoy Island, north of Siberia, have driven away 10 adult polar bears and a number of cubs that had besieged them for two weeks.

I put in articles last week on the impacts of climate change on the Louisiana rains and subsequent flooding.  Establishing the connection was possible because of advances in attribution studies.  Graham Readfearn discusses attribution studies and summarizes some recent results.

A coalition of 25 military and national security experts has warned that climate change poses a “significant risk to US national security and international security” that requires more attention from the US federal government.

Wheat is the single most important grain crop in terms of human consumption.  Thus, it is a concern that a new study, published in Nature Climate Change, finds that projections using three different techniques all agree that rising temperatures are going to be bad for wheat production.  An important caveat is that there may be offsetting factors, such as increasing CO₂ levels, that reduce some of the impacts of temperature.

Barrow, Alaska is the northern-most town in the U.S., but it and the villages surrounding it face dire consequences as a result of rising seas, melting permafrost, beach erosion, and other changes associated with rising temperatures.  It is becoming apparent that it is only a matter of time before the town and villages must be moved.  Who will pay?

Energy

Laurens Electric Cooperative commemorated South Carolina’s first community solar farm on Tuesday.  It has a capacity of 108 kW, or enough to power around 27 homes.

South Carolina Electric and Gas is working with a private firm to develop a 10 MW solar farm in Jasper County.

The first sentence to a new post on Bloomberg Markets reads: “Rooftop solar, which has surged more than 1,000 percent since 2010, will barely grow at all next year.”  Residential installations are expected to only grow by 0.3% as utilities push back against mandates to buy the electricity and shifting tax policies curb demand.  Nevertheless, “America Has Seen 11 Consecutive Quarters with More Than 1 Gigawatt of Solar PV Installed,” although only about a third of that was residential.

The British government has approved construction of the Hinckley C nuclear power plant, which will supply 3.2 GW of electricity.  The proposal to build the plant has been highly controversial, from technical, economic, and national security perspectives because of the heavy involvement of China and France in the project.  In a piece posted July 28, Simon Evans of Carbon Brief provided extensive background information about Hinckley C in a Q & A format.  I have included this material because of the relevance of the economic and technical issues to new nuclear power plants in the U.S.  In addition, Debbie Carlson reviews the status of nuclear power in the U.S. for Guardian Sustainable Business.

A new report on world energy investments by the International Energy Agency looks at the global transition to a low-carbon energy system and finds a mixture of good news and bad news.  The good news is that “Wind, solar PV and electric-vehicle investments are broadly on a trajectory consistent with limiting the increase in global temperature to 2°C.”  Beyond that, things don’t look so good, particularly for investments in nuclear, carbon capture and storage, and alternative means of fueling transportation.  As Chris Mooney sums it up: “It all leads to a picture in which we are beginning to realize that while wind and solar and electric cars are great, they may also be the easy part.  We still have a great deal more to grapple with before we can get climate change under control.”

Because methane is a potent greenhouse gas, any climate benefits from shifting electric power generation from coal to natural gas (of which methane is the main component) depend on our ability to minimize fugitive methane emissions from natural gas drilling, collection, distribution, and storage operations.  Currently, the extent and trajectory of methane fugitive emissions are uncertain and a new study adds to that uncertainty.  Unlike some recent studies, it finds that methane leakage from fossil fuel activities was largely flat from 1984 until about 2000, and then increased sharply from that point on.

Wind energy is expected to contribute more to electricity generation as the country expands its renewable energy portfolio.  Thus, it is encouraging that a new study published in Nature Energy has found that costs are expected to decline, primarily as a result of larger turbines.  By 2030, the research finds, the average onshore wind turbine is expected to stand 115 meters tall (from the ground to the “hub,” where the rotor attaches) and to have a rotor diameter of 135 meters, generating 3.25 MW of electricity. Offshore turbines are expected to be even larger, at 125 meters tall with an average rotor diameter of 190 meters, generating 11 MW.  Relatedly, the Departments of Energy and the Interior released on Friday of last week a strategic plan to develop a national offshore wind industry.

Your Weekly Roundup of Climate and Energy News follows. Please forward it to anyone you think might be interested. For an archive of prior posts visit the CAAV website. It also contains news of events in the Central Shenandoah Valley as well as activities in which CAAV is involved.

Last Saturday, Presidents Obama and Xi Jinping formally joined the Paris climate agreement in a joint event in China. John Upton of Climate Central explains what that means. The New York Times has an interesting interview with President Obama about climate change and his responses to it during his time in office. Rocky Mountain Institute has recently completed a study with its collaborators of how China can reduce its carbon emissions while growing its economy.

Last week I provided a link to a new study that shows that belief in human-caused climate change has become subject to greater partisan polarization over the past few years. Now, David Roberts has provided a more detailed summary of the study and some reflection on what it means for the future. Dana Nuccitelli argues, based on a new study by Media Matters, that much of the increase in polarization is due to conservative media bias about climate change. Finally, sociologist Arlie Russell Hochschild sheds some light on the conundrum of why people living in one of the most polluted areas of the country hate the EPA.

Climate

Scientists, working together through World Weather Attribution, have determined that climate change increased the chances of the August extreme rainfall in Louisiana by at least 40%. Significantly, the lead author of the study also stated “we found that the mostly likely impact of climate change is a near doubling of the odds of such a storm.” The team has submitted its results to the journal Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, which means they are still subject to peer-review. In addition, Peter Sinclair has a new post and video looking at the broad issue of the impact of climate change on extreme weather.

A new study, published in Nature Geoscience, has found that the power of Asian typhoons has increased by 50% in the past 40 years due to warming seas.

Andrew Rice has an interesting (but long) essay in New York Magazine about what the future of NYC will be as sea level rises in response to climate change. Also, Justin Gillis has a very informative article in The New York Times about “recurrent flooding” or “sunny-day flooding”along the Atlantic coast as sea level rises. The article is date-lined Norfolk. Finally, as this article (and the recent Louisiana flooding) reminds us, you don’t have to live along the coast to experience flooding from extreme weather events.

Over the past few decades, in the United States the East has experienced colder winter days, while the West has experienced warmer winter days. According to a new study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research, the ‘warm West, cold East’ temperature gap is steadily expanding, and is likely being driven by human-caused greenhouse gas emissions.

Global warming is disrupting ocean life from plankton to whales and the heat may linger in the depths for centuries even if man-made greenhouse gas emissions are halted, according to a new report by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. While polar bears, walruses and ice seals appear to be suffering as a result of the reduction in Arctic sea ice associated with global warming, humpback, fin and minke whales appear to be benefiting, according to a new study published in Biology Letters.

Land-use changes are among the many factors in addition to CO₂ emissions that influence climate. Thus it is disturbing to read about the rapid rate at which wilderness is being lost from the world, as documented in a new study in the journal Current Biology. Perhaps this item got my attention because I am finally reading The Sixth Extinction by Elizabeth Kolbert, a book that really makes one pause and consider the future of life on Earth, even without the added impacts of climate change.

A new meta-study, published Thursday in the journal Science, examines the ways in which climate change is affecting people and our societies, affirming some that are well known and introducing others that are less recognized.

Energy

Dakota Access Pipeline’s private security unleashed attack dogs and sprayed mace on protesters over the weekend as tensions over the pipeline in North Dakota escalated into violence for the first time. In a moving essay, Phil McKenna of Inside Climate News provides the background of the struggle. Lisa Song reports on the destruction of some burial sites and the failure to get a restraining order for the pipeline construction. Joe Heim writes about the transformation of the struggle into a national movement for Native Americans. Friday afternoon a federal judge denied the Native American tribe’s request for an injunction that would have temporarily halted construction on the pipeline; however, shortly thereafter the Department of Justice, the Department of the Army, and the Department of the Interior issued a statement that read in part: “The Army will not authorize constructing the Dakota Access pipeline on Corps land bordering or under Lake Oahe until it can determine whether it will need to reconsider any of its previous decisions regarding the Lake Oahe site under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) or other federal laws. Therefore, construction of the pipeline on Army Corps land bordering or under Lake Oahe will not go forward at this time.”

Dominion Energy Chairman and CEO Tom Farrell has said that the company has pushed back the date at which the Atlantic Coast Pipeline will go into service to early 2019. He also said that FERC’s issuance of a Notice of Schedule on August 12 means that “FERC believes that the route is essentially complete.” Reps. Bob Goodlatte, H. Morgan Griffith, and Robert Hurt sent a letter to the FERC requesting that they hold both one-on-one meetings and public hearings with constituents in Virginia pertaining to the Draft Environmental Impact Statement for the Mountain Valley Pipeline.

According to several studies, moving the U.S. away from our reliance on fossil-fuel derived electricity to almost total use of renewable energy will require a smart supergrid relying on high-voltage direct-current (HVDC) transmission lines to be overlaid on our existing grid. John Fialka of E&E Publishing has a three-part series documenting what will be required for its development. Part One provides some background, Part Two deals with the impact of regulations on the development of the needed supergrid, and Part Three explains the benefits of a supergrid and the obstacles to its development. If you can’t spare the time to read all three, I urge you to at least read Part Three.

A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine, entitled The Power of Change, examines the changes that will be required in how we get electricity if we are to achieve cleaner electricity production. Among the steps that are proposed for the federal government to take is putting a price on pollution from electricity production to reflect the hidden costs of fossil fuels to human health and the environment.

Because of drought and insect infestations, the western United States contains millions of dead trees; 66 million in California alone. Since those trees will decay or burn, releasing their CO₂ to the atmosphere, a new study proposes that they be burned with coal in coal-fired power plants to reduce the fossil-fuel related CO₂ emissions. Not surprisingly, the proposal is controversial.

Matex Virginia Power LLC plans to build a 1,400 MW combined-cycle natural gas-fired power plant next to the southern branch of the Elizabeth River in Chesapeake, VA.