Month: October 2020

Politics and Policy

During their debate Thursday night, President Trump and former vice president Joe Biden laid out starkly different visions on whether the U.S. needs to transition away from fossil fuels to address climate change.  As might be expected, conservatives pummeled Biden for his position, accusing him of being callous with the economy in his proposals for tackling climate change.  Nevertheless, an article in Market Watch asserted that the U.S. will transition to a clean-energy mix regardless of who wins the White House, although the pace of that change will depend on the election’s outcome.  The Independent asked climate scientists, policy experts, and environmentalists for their takeaways from the climate change portion of the debate.  According to a national poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, 66% support Biden’s $2 trillion climate plan while 26% oppose it.  If Biden wins, the question haunting climate activists is whether this time will be different from President Obama’s first term.  Automakers evidently think it will be because they are gearing up for tough new vehicle emissions rules and policies favoring electric vehicles if Biden wins.

GreenTech Media interviewed Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) about areas of agreement and disagreement among legislators on energy reform.  At The New Republic, Kate Aronoff explored the role that conservative West Virginia Senator Joe Manchin (D) might play in enacting energy and climate legislation should the Democrats take over the Senate.  A new report from the Brookings Institution assessed the greenhouse gas reduction pledges and commitments of the U.S.’s largest cities, tracked the emissions savings that could result from them, and evaluated whether the cities are meeting their goals.  On Wednesday, offshore wind developers said that the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management within the Department of the Interior will require additional funding to keep permitting on track for a number of projects.  Climate change isn’t Biden’s sole environmental concern.  His platform calls on the U.S. to set aside 30% of its lands and water for conservation by the end of the decade.

In a diatribe against U.S. climate policies, China’s Foreign Affairs Ministry blamed Trump’s “negative stance” and “retrogression on climate change” for undermining progress on the Paris climate accord.  EU environment ministers were set to agree this week to make the bloc’s pledge to be carbon neutral by 2050 legally binding, but the agriculture lobby and agriculturally dominant countries stand as a potential obstacle to the pledge.  Nevertheless, EU agriculture ministers agreed on Wednesday to set aside part of the farming policy budget for programs that protect the environment.  Coal played a very important part in Poland’s rise from the ashes of WWII, but pressures are mounting for the country to move on.  In an interesting coincidence, Yale Environment 360 published a retrospective about Poland and coal in the same week the country’s largest power company announced that it wants to become 100% renewable by 2050.  The French government stepped in to force a domestic company to delay signing a potential $7 billion deal with a U.S. liquefied natural gas company over concerns that its U.S. shale gas was too dirty.  After modelling a ‘green recovery’ plan against a ‘return-to-normal’ plan across the UK, Germany, Poland, the U.S., India, and globally, researchers from Cambridge Econometrics concluded that the impact of a green recovery strategy would be “consistently larger” than that delivered through a standard stimulus package.

Jody Freeman, the Archibald Cox Professor of Law and director of the Environmental and Energy Law Program at Harvard Law School, examined the impact on environmental and climate law of Judge Amy Coney Barrett’s possible elevation to the Supreme Court.  Three years after Geoffrey Supran and Naomi Oreskes published research finding “a discrepancy between what ExxonMobil’s scientists and executives discussed about climate change privately and in academic circles and what it presented to the general public,” Vijay Swarup, Exxon’s vice president of research and development, published a comment in the same journal that seeks to rebut the research.  A key step in the progress of the National Climate Assessment—the solicitation for authors to work on the project—was delayed for months, but after public outcry, NASA restarted the process, publishing a Federal Register notice Thursday seeking authors.

Climate and Climate Science

The North Complex fire wiped out the town of Berry Creek, CA, in September.  A multimedia article in The Washington Post explained the contribution of climate change to that fire.  Northern California faces days of ‘critical’ fire risk as strong, dry winds will keep fire danger high this week and next.  The Cameron Peak Fire near Rocky Mountain National Park became the largest wildfire in Colorado history, growing to almost 207,000 acres this week, while the East Troublesome Fire forced closure of the park.  An NPR analysis found that most wildfire-prone states have no requirements for disclosing fire risk to someone who buys or rents a home; only California and Oregon do.

According to a new study, dust storms on the Great Plains have become more common and more intense in the past 20 years, because of more frequent droughts in the region and an expansion of croplands.  In 2003 my wife and I hiked into Canyon de Chelly, in the Navajo Nation in northeastern Arizona, on a trail that was worn into the sandstone from the many feet that had walked it over centuries.  Thus, it was especially painful to read about the impacts of the extreme drought that is occurring there.

Climate scientist Michael Oppenheimer published an important essay on the danger posed by multiple, simultaneous disasters in Foreign Affairs (note, you can read it for free just by signing up).

Hurricane Epsilon rapidly intensified Tuesday and Wednesday, unexpectedly becoming a major Category 3 hurricane and claiming two records as it cruised northwest over the open Atlantic.  For the first time since records began, the surface waters of the Laptev Sea in Siberia, the main nursery of Arctic sea ice, have yet to start freezing in late October.

“Global Safety Net” is the first global-scale analysis of land areas requiring protection to solve the twin crises of biodiversity and climate change.  Brianna Baker interviewed Eric Dinerstein, the wildlife scientist who led the project.

Energy

An aggressive push towards 100% renewable energy would save Americans as much as $321bn in energy costs, while also slashing planet-heating emissions, according to a new report from Rewiring America.  Corporate buyers of renewable energy will drive the development of 44 GW to 72 GW of new wind and solar projects in the U.S. over the next decade, according to a new report from IHS Markit.  If you are thinking of converting your home to all-electric, you might be interested in the experiences of Barry Cinnamon, CEO of Cinnamon Energy Systems.

Inside Climate News reviewed concerns about NuScale Power’s small modular nuclear reactors that have been approved for construction in Idaho.  As global warming climbs and humanity’s water consumption increases, nuclear and fossil-fueled power plants that rely on freshwater for cooling may not be able to perform at their peak capacity or could be forced to shut down temporarily.

Vox energy reporter David Roberts described the basics of geothermal energy and explained why its time may finally have come.  Another couple of educational pieces came this week from Greentech Media where Jason Deign explained the concept and applications of “virtual power plants” and floating wind turbines.

The extra cost of manufacturing battery electric cars versus their internal combustion engine equivalents will diminish to just $1,900 per car by 2022, and disappear completely by 2024, according to research by the investment bank UBS.  A large part of Dan Gearino’s column this week was devoted to EVs, prompted in part by GM’s introduction of the new electric Hummer.  An Associate and a Managing Director at RMI made the case for why the U.S. should assert EV leadership.

The International Maritime Organization agreed on Friday to require shipping to reduce its CO₂ emissions per unit of economic activity by 40% compared with 2008 levels in the next 10 years.  Green groups said this could still result in an increase in CO₂ emissions.

Potpourri

Michael Svoboda reviewed Kim Stanley Robinson’s new novel, The Ministry of the Future.  SueEllen Campbell provided readings to shed some light on the question of growth versus de-growth as solutions for the climate crisis.  Philip K. Verleger reviewed Daniel Yergin’s new book, The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations.  What does a former Renaissance scholar have to teach us about how the media should talk about climate change?  Lizzie Widdicombe wanted to know, so she interviewed Genevieve Guenther for The New Yorker.  At Grist, Kate Yoder looked at the growing field of climate-fiction, paraphrasing social scientist Matthew Schneider-Mayerson: “In the near future, …, we may get to the point that any story that doesn’t touch on climate change might as well be considered either historical fiction or other-worldly fantasy.”

Closing Thought

Although I missed it earlier this month when it was released, I’m including Pope Francis’ latest encyclical, titled “Fratelli Tutti” (We are all brothers and sisters), which contains ten ideas about caring for our common home and the importance of rethinking the way we connect with each other.  The Pope has also produced a TED talk that makes the point in much sharper terms.

Politics and Policy

A proclamation released by the White House last weekend would increase tariffs on imported solar cells and modules in the final year of the tariffs and eliminate an exemption for two-sided solar panels.  While the Trump administration has tried to revive the coal industry, the German government set an exit date and made a plan to help coal communities survive, thereby providing lessons the U.S. could benefit from.  President Trump signed an executive order initiating the formation of the “United States One Trillion Trees Interagency Council.”  Several conservative climate groups have attempted to wrench the issue of climate change from the hands of the Democrats and shore up climate concern on the right, in part because of the impact of The Green New Deal and the fact that Americans are now nearly four times more likely to say they’re alarmed about the climate crisis than to be dismissive of it.  Vox’s Umair Irfan asked the Biden campaign six key questions about his climate change plans while GreenTech Media asked clean-energy experts and advocates what’s most likely to get done in the first 100 days of a Biden presidency.  Politico asserted that Biden and some Congressional Democrats want to use trade agreements to combat global warming, breaking from decades of U.S. trade policy that largely ignored climate change.

President Trump’s nominee for the Supreme Court, Amy Coney Barrett, said late during her confirmation hearing Tuesday that while she has read up on the issue of climate change, she did not have “firm views” on the subject.  However, her efforts to play it safe created perhaps the most tangible backlash of her hearings.  FERC issued a proposed policy statement on Thursday saying the panel has the authority and willingness to consider potential grid operators’ requests to incorporate a carbon tax into their rate structures.  DOE has awarded $80 million each to X-energy and TerraPower, with the potential for billions more in federal funding as they strive to build their smaller scale, more flexible advanced nuclear reactor designs by 2027.

According to recent research on adaptation to sea level rise in coastal communities, shoreline armoring is more common in areas that have low racial diversity and higher home values, household incomes, and population densities, whereas measures based around home buyout programs correlate with high racial diversity and low home values, household incomes, and population densities.  A paper published Monday at the National Bureau of Economic Research reported a decline in sales of houses in low-lying coastal areas of Florida beginning in 2013, followed a few years later by a drop in prices compared with houses in safer areas.  New research compiled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac showed housing markets are beginning to respond to damages from climate change-fueled floods, storms, and disasters.  An executive board member of the Australian insurance regulators said in a speech that the cost of pre-emptive action to avoid the impact of disasters exacerbated by the climate crisis was far cheaper than dealing with the aftermath.

A new paper in the journal Science found that the world could get on track to avert catastrophic climate change by investing 10% of the planned $12 trillion in pandemic recovery packages to reducing dependence on fossil fuels.  JPMorgan Chase aims to support its clients in expanding investment in clean energy and work towards net zero-emissions by 2050, while HSBC will target net zero carbon emissions across its entire customer base.  A group of China’s top climate researchers released a plan whereby the country could meet the goal of carbon neutrality by 2050.  A proposal by leading maritime nations to curb the shipping industry’s carbon footprint falls far short of both the International Maritime Organization and Paris Agreement climate goals, shipping experts have warned.

Climate and Climate Science

New research published in Nature showed that a holistic, global approach to healing ecosystems would be a big step in stopping the twin threats of extreme climate disruption and biodiversity loss.  Research published in Environmental Research Letters reported that protecting intact peatlands and restoring degraded ones are crucial steps if the world is to counter climate change.

Research published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences found that recent Atlantic warming is “unparalleled” in the past three millennia.  In addition, scientists have taken hourly temperature measurements in the deep (4762 to 15,600 ft) Atlantic over a ten year period, documenting heat buildup there.  With oceans absorbing more than 90% of global warming, marine heatwaves are becoming hotter, larger, and longer lasting, with major ecological consequences.  Meanwhile, in the Southern Hemisphere, half the corals on Australia’s Great Barrier Reef have died over the past 25 years, according to a study published in the Proceedings of the Royal Society B.

This year, roughly a quarter of the vast Pantanal wetland in Brazil, one of the most biodiverse places on Earth, burned in wildfires worsened by climate change.  Furthermore, almost half the land belonging to Indigenous people was among that burned.  According to ProPublica’s climate maps project, with climate change, California’s summer and fall fire seasons are growing longer and melding into each other, overlapping in time and space.  In northern Colorado, the Cameron Peak wildfire is officially the largest ever observed in the state.  Fires are becoming more frequent on Mt. Kilimanjaro, impacting the plant and animal species there.

Extreme weather events have increased dramatically in the past 20 years, taking a heavy human and economic toll worldwide, and are likely to wreak further havoc, the UN said in a report.  Also, the UN humanitarian chief warned that daunting problems in Africa’s Sahel region are getting worse and the region “is very close to a tipping point,” with climate change among the factors contributing to the situation.  Gloria Dickey reported in The Guardian that the Arctic is unravelling faster than anyone could once have predicted.  A study published in Science Advances showed that only a few degrees of warming in the Arctic is enough to abruptly activate large-scale permafrost thawing, which can release greenhouse gases at a massive scale.

The planet just recorded its hottest September since at least 1880, according to three temperature-tracking agencies.  Furthermore, 2020 is likely to be the hottest year when a La Niña event was present in the tropical Pacific Ocean.  On Wednesday, the temperature in Phoenix climbed to at least 100°F for the 144th time in 2020 (out of 288 days), surpassing 143 days in 1989 for the most instances on record.  Nearly half of the continental U.S. is gripped by drought, government forecasters said, and conditions are expected to worsen this winter across much of the Southwest and South.

Energy

According to the International Energy Agency’s “World Energy Outlook 2020”, the world’s best solar power schemes now offer the “cheapest … electricity in history” with the technology cheaper than coal and gas in most major countries.  In an update of its 2018 analysis, The Economics of Electrifying Buildings, RMI found that in every city they analyzed, a new all-electric, single-family home is less expensive than a new mixed-fuel home that relies on gas for cooking, space heating, and water heating.

The industry that operates America’s hydroelectric dams and several environmental groups announced an agreement to work together to get more clean energy from hydropower while reducing the environmental harm from dams.  Pumped storage has the ability to provide around-the-clock reliability for renewable energy projects, but is notoriously difficult to site.  Lithium-ion batteries now dominate energy storage at renewable energy installations, but competitors such as other battery types and nonchemical approaches could be better for intermediate-term storage, while hydrogen may be the answer for seasonal storage.  DOE’s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy and the Dutch Government have issued a statement of intent for a hydrogen technology collaboration.  Japan plans to create a commercial hydrogen fuel supply chain by around 2030.

Sales of EVs in Europe are growing at such a pace that the continent looks increasingly likely to outpace China in the near future.  Arrival, a UK-based EV startup backed by Hyundai and Kia that’s preparing to make electric delivery trucks for UPS, is building a factory in South Carolina that will be able to make as many as 1,000 battery-powered buses per year.

According to satellite imagery analyzed by Paris-based private data firm Kayrros, so far this year the global number of methane hot spots has soared by 32%, while methane leaks in Algeria, Russia, and Turkmenistan have grown by more than 40%.  A study published in AGU Advances found that the warming associated with such leaks negates the benefits of shifting electricity production from coal-fired power plants to gas-fired plants.  The EU is considering binding standards to limit methane leaks throughout the natural gas supply chain, but some question whether they go far enough.

The CEO of MHI Vestas Offshore Wind said that the company is developing a new wind turbine that will rival those by competitors Siemens Gamesa and General Electric.  Mitsubishi Corp. continues to explore the possibility of building an offshore wind project in Lake Erie to deliver power for New York state.

Potpourri

The Atlantic is launching “Planet”, a new section devoted to climate change, along with “The Weekly Planet”, a new newsletter.  In reviewing the documentary “I Am Greta”, BBC News chief environment correspondent wrote: “What Grossman has made is a coming of age movie wrapped up in a super-hero flick.  This is the story of how a troubled and lonely child discovers her hidden powers and uses them to change the course of the world.”  At The Daily Climate, Peter Dykstra proposed his list of missteps by the film industry when making eco-films.  Emily Atkin interviewed Ayana Elizabeth Johnson and Katharine Wilkinson, the editors of All We Can Save: Truth, Courage, and Solutions for the Climate Crisis.  Guardian environment correspondent Fiona Harvey recalled all of the successes of the environmental movement, arguing that it can also win the fight against the climate crisis.

Closing Thought

Here is an encouraging story from the intersection of philanthropy and technology, demonstrating how a unique type of foundation is helping new technologies bridge the chasm between invention and use.

Politics and Policy

The Editorial Board of the New York Times (NYT) has endorsed former Vice-President Joe Biden for president.  Biden’s transition team is considering appointing a climate and energy “czar” to help direct sweeping changes across federal agencies if he wins next month’s election.  A Biden administration would also take aim at the Trump administration’s rollbacks of many major environmental protections, but because of complexities in the rulemaking process, undoing just some of them could take years.  During the only vice-presidential debate, Vice President Mike Pence repeatedly falsely asserted that a Biden administration plans to ban fracking and adopt the Green New Deal.  Consequently, Dino Grandoni of the Washington Post compared Biden’s climate plan to the Green New Deal, as did David Roberts of Vox.  The U.S. Supreme Court has decided to consider a case that will determine how much leeway appeals courts get in deciding the best venue for climate lawsuits brought by states and cities.  NPR’s Jeff Brady examined how Supreme Court nominee Amy Coney Barrett is likely to impact climate action if confirmed.

The Trump administration is behind schedule in putting out a call for scientists to produce the Fifth National Climate Assessment.  A panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia appeared divided Thursday on President Trump’s effort to repeal his predecessor’s regulations on planet-warming emissions from the power sector and replace them with far weaker controls.  Marianne Lavelle summarized some of the arguments presented.  A federal court on Thursday struck down an Obama-era regulation targeting methane leaks from drilling on public lands, arguing that it went beyond the reach of the BLM, which promulgated the rule.  When it comes to acting on climate change, a new study suggests that people don’t like to feel that their freedom of choice is being threatened and would prefer ‘upstream’ solutions that target the producers rather than consumers of carbon-intensive goods.

The European Parliament has voted in favor of a legally binding target for the EU to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 60% by 2030 (relative to 1990 levels), which is more ambitious than the emissions cut proposed by the European Commission and may be difficult to get ratified by the member nations.  China’s goal of reaching carbon neutrality by 2060 would require investments of more than $5 trillion, according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.  Although any explicit reference to net zero carbon emissions was vehemently opposed at the Paris Climate Talks in 2015, more than a third of global emissions are now covered by net zero targets, demonstrating how quickly things can change, even with the U.S. opting out.

Investigative reporting by ProPublica revealed how the Virginia legislature succumbed to intensive lobbying by Dominion Energy, in spite of pledges to trim its power.  The Virginia Manufacturers Association is suing Virginia’s Department of Environmental Quality and State Air Pollution Control Board over the state’s revision of regulations that will allow it to join a regional cap-and-trade market for carbon.  The Sierra Club and seven other environmental groups filed petitions late Monday asking the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals to stay recently issued permits allowing the Mountain Valley Pipeline (MVP) to burrow under streams and wetlands until the court can hear their challenge of the authorizations.  The Albemarle County Board of Supervisors on Wednesday adopted the county’s first “Climate Action Plan”.  A legal principle embraced by Virginia that strictly curtails local powers is hampering cities from making progress on clean energy goals, according to a report from the American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy.  An expanding wood pellet market in the Southeast has fallen short of climate and job goals, instead bringing air pollution, noise, and reduced biodiversity in majority Black communities.

Climate and Climate Science

September was the warmest on record globally, according to the weather service Copernicus.  In interviews with CBS News, both James Hansen and Michael Mann stressed that the worst effects of climate change don’t have to happen, but humans’ actions in the near future will determine if they do.  Emissions of nitrous oxide, a climate super-pollutant hundreds of times more potent than CO₂, have increased by 30% since 1980, according to a new paper in the journal Nature.

As of October 7th, 16 billion-dollar weather/climate disasters have impacted the U.S., tying the annual records that occurred in 2011 and 2017, with three months left to go.  As hurricane Delta bore down on the U.S. Gulf Coast, it was the latest in a recent flurry of rapidly intensifying Atlantic hurricanes that scientists largely blame on global warming.  As of Tuesday morning, the August Complex Fire in the northern part of California had burned at least a million acres, while the total area burned set a new record twice as large as the old one, set 2018.

Although I have put several articles recently about the Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, this article from Yale Climate Connections does an excellent job of summarizing recent research there.  Reuters had a very interesting and informative infographic and article about permafrost and its possible impacts in a warming world.

Because of the climate crisis, much of the Amazon could be on the verge of losing its distinct nature and switching from a closed canopy rainforest to an open savannah with far fewer trees.  The total area of Brazilian Amazon rainforest that has been degraded — through selective logging, understory fire, destruction of forest edges, and fragmentation — is larger than the total deforested area.

A top Trump official released a polar bear study by government scientists last Friday that highlights the endangered animals’ vulnerability to climate change and the fact that proposed oil drilling in Alaska would probably encroach on their habitat, causing more stress.

Energy

JPMorgan Chase & Co will support its clients in expanding investment in clean energy and work towards net zero-emissions by 2050.  Europe’s top oil companies are still not aligned with UN-backed targets to combat climate change, even after outlining ambitious plans to slash carbon emissions and pivot to renewable energy.  U.S. oil firms are doubling down on efforts to extract oil and gas, while pursuing technologies to capture and store carbon emissions.  Leaked documents revealed that ExxonMobil’s growth strategy will increase its annual carbon emissions by 17% between 2017 and 2025.  Within one week of each other, Ameren and Entergy pledged to cut CO₂ emissions to nothing by 2050.  The American public is facing a potential bill of $280 billion for the cleanup of 2.6 million unplugged oil and gas wells (not including an estimated 1.2 million undocumented orphan wells).

As Ford Motor Co., General Motors, and Volkswagen have unveiled new electric cars, they have admitted that electric models will in some ways be superior to models using internal combustion engines.  Toyota and Hino Trucks are developing their first Class 8 hydrogen fuel-cell electric truck for the North American market.  Developing a lithium industry using brine from California’s Salton Sea could help set up a multi-billion dollar domestic supply chain for electric vehicle batteries.

A new report concludes that the U.S. needs a massive green hydrogen industry to decarbonize its electricity, transportation, and industrial sectors, as well as major investments and policy changes to enable it to grow to its full potential.  Three analysts at Rocky Mountain Institute looked at the role hydrogen might play in powering gas turbines during periods when wind and solar production were low in a decarbonized economy.

Daniel Yergin, a long-time student of energy and energy policy, wrote about the impacts of COVID-19 on “the sprint away from fossil fuels”.  The Guardian’s Oliver Milman reviewed the status of carbon capture and utilization or storage.  A clutch of wave power developers is hoping to shake off the technology’s “forever-round-the-corner” reputation with commercial-scale arrays that could be in the water next year.  Linking floating solar panels with hydropower could generate anywhere from 16% to 40% of the world’s electricity, according to a new study by researchers at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory.

The American Council for an Energy Efficient Economy has just released its 2020 “Clean Energy Scorecard” for U.S. cities.  The organization that develops model building codes adopted by most cities and states in the U.S. met this week, pitting officials trying to go greener against real estate developers and the natural gas industry.

Potpourri

Terra Nostra, a 30-minute multimedia symphony about climate change is now available on-line.  At Yale Climate Connections, Spencer Weart reviewed Climate Change and the Nation State: The Case for Nationalism in a Warming World by Anatol Lieven.  In The New Yorker, Elizabeth Kolbert published an excerpt from her afterward to a new compendium entitled The Fragile Earth: Writing from The New Yorker on Climate Change.  Advertisements on Facebook denying the reality of the climate crisis or the need for action were viewed by at least 8 million people in the U.S. in the first half of 2020.  An increasing number of psychologists believe the trauma that is a consequence of climate breakdown is also one of the biggest obstacles in the struggle to take action against rising greenhouse gas emissions.  The Yale and George Mason Universities’ programs on climate change communication have released a new report entitled “Climate Change in the Minds of U.S. News Audiences”.  Members of the Rockefeller family are leveraging their fortune and network of wealthy friends to pressure major U.S. banks to stop investing in fossil fuels.

Closing Thought

As some of you know, I am an engineer by nature and by training.  Consequently, the article that most boosted my optimism this week was one about Aaswath Raman and his team at UCLA, who have developed a passive cooling system that can help reduce energy use in a warming world.