Month: February 2020

The Weekly Roundup of Climate and Energy News for the week ending February 21, 2020 follows.  Please forward the URL to anyone you think might be interested.

Politics and Policy

When it comes to coping with and preparing for the impacts of sea level rise, Miami and Miami Beach get most of the press.  As a consequence, we tend to overlook the many other coastal cities faced with similar problems.  The Washington Post addressed this by publishing an article about Boston that made clear just how complicated the issue is.  In an opinion piece in the same newspaper, New Orleans architects and planners Steven Bingler and Martin C. Pedersen argue that one option that must be considered for coastal cities is retreat.  President Trump’s fiscal 2021 budget would slash funding for the National and Regional Climate Adaptation Science Centers, eliminating all $38 million for research to help wildlife and humans “adapt to a changing climate.”  Mandy Gunasekara, who urged President Trump to exit the Paris climate agreement as the EPA’s top air-policy adviser, is poised to return to the agency as its next chief of staff.

Democratic presidential candidates discussed climate change for about 15 minutes during the Wednesday night debate in Las Vegas.  Marianne Lavelle of Inside Climate News summarized what the candidates had to say.  Also on Wednesday, the Center for Biological Diversity Action Fund ranked Michael Bloomberg and Amy Klobuchar last among the candidates on their plans to address climate change, giving each a score of 1 out of 10.  Vox published a list of five things to know about how Bernie Sanders plans to deal with the climate crisis as president.  Rather than focusing on curtailing fossil fuel use, as the Democrats do, Republican lawmakers want to continue their use, but employ carbon capture and storage technology.  The plan was immediately condemned by the powerful Club for Growth PAC and elicited grumbles from a handful of Republican lawmakers.  Amazon founder Jeff Bezos said Monday that he plans to spend $10 billion of his own fortune to help fight climate change.  A new study from the Pew Research Center found that the partisan divide over climate change is the largest it has ever been.

In a move to protect its ski slopes and growing economy, Utah has created a long-term plan to address the climate crisis.  Writing in The Atlantic, Robinson Meyer asserted that in the past few years, the American Petroleum Institute and its allies have begun working at the local level, fighting against climate-friendly policies in at least 16 different states.

A study published in the journal Nature Energy cautioned that the negative impacts associated with climate change are insufficiently accounted for in financial markets, raising the possibility of a severe recession in response to serious climate problems.  A commission, convened by the World Health Organization, UNICEF, and the journal Lancet, found that every country in the world is failing to shield children’s health and their futures from intensifying ecological degradation and climate change.  The Fifth National Climate Assessment is scheduled for release in 2022, about halfway through President Trump’s potential second term.  Planning for the report is already underway, with a project leader expected to be chosen within a few months.  The White House stands to have an influential role in the report’s construction through the Office of Science and Technology Policy.

Climate and Climate Science

According to NOAA scientists, January 2020 recorded the highest global average temperature for January in 141 years of record keeping.  In a stirring photo-essay for The New York Times, Damien Cave wrote of “The End of Australia as We Know It.”  At National Geographic, Madeline Stone explained how climate change may have caused the locust plague in East Africa.  She also described the various factors and events that may have led to record or near-record temperatures on the Antarctic Peninsula,.

A new study, published in the journal Nature, concluded that “natural” emissions of fossil methane are lower than had been thought.  Assuming that estimates of total fossil methane emissions are correct, this suggests that emissions of fossil methane from coal, oil, and gas operations are larger than previously thought.  Some take issue with that assumption.  A second study, published in Science, found that “minimal” methane was emitted from permafrost and geologic seepage as Earth was emerging from the last ice age.

In a 2016 book, naturalist E. O. Wilson proposed that half of Earth be set aside for natural systems.  Now many people, both scientists and non-scientists, are working to bring that idea to fruition.  Two scientific studies of the number of insects splattered by cars have revealed a huge decline in abundance at European sites in two decades.  Scientists and conservationists have warned that if high ocean temperatures in the region do not drop in the next two weeks, the Great Barrier Reef could experience its third major coral bleaching incident in five years.  In addition, climate change could destroy nearly all remaining coral reefs by the end of the century, according to research released Monday at the AGU Ocean Sciences Meeting 2020 in San Diego.

In an article in the journal Science, two USGS researchers wrote “The Colorado River Basin loses progressively more water to evaporation, as its sunlight-reflecting snow mantle disappears.”  As a result, the annual-mean discharge has been decreasing by 9.3% per °C of warming.  Because of heavy rains, major flooding occurred in central Mississippi and southern Tennessee.  In addition, Storm Dennis caused widespread flooding across England, Wales and Scotland.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is the current that carries warm water north and cold water south, maintaining the mild climate in the UK and northern Europe.  While there have been some studies that suggest the AMOC is slowing, exactly what is happening is unclear.  Wired presented a summary of the research efforts underway to better understand the AMOC.

Energy

At Yale Environment 360, journalist Lois Parshley explored the question of whether small modular nuclear reactors have a place in the power mix of the future.  Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly evaluate how to develop, build and operate small modular nuclear reactors, which TVA is considering building near ORNL.  In the wake of the shutdown of many of its nuclear energy plants, Japan is implementing a 4-D energy transition, creating a distributed, decarbonized, decentralized, and digitized grid.

Tensions are high in Canada over a controversial pipeline project as protesters enter their 12th day blockading railways and demonstrating on streets and highways.  The CBC provided background on the controversy.  In the U.S., FERC delayed a vote on a similar proposed natural gas pipeline and marine export terminal in Oregon.  In California, utilities argue that ramping up the production of renewable natural gas and blending it with normal natural gas in pipelines can reduce GHGs faster and cheaper than electrifying buildings.  David Roberts examined this argument at Vox.

New reports from the Brattle Group and the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory with the ClimateWorks Foundation examined the feasibility and costs of meeting the climate goals of the six New England states and California, respectively.  E&E News characterized it as a “steep path.”

Delta Air Lines said on Friday that it will invest $1 billion over the next decade in initiatives that would limit the impact of global air travel, which accounts for roughly 2% of global CO₂ emissions, on the environment.  The U.S. Department of Agriculture on Thursday announced a goal for biofuels to make up 30% of U.S. transportation fuels by 2050.

Power-generating capacity from renewable energy — including solar, wind and utility-scale hydropower — has doubled in the U.S. since 2010, according to a new report from BloombergNEF and the Business Council for Sustainable Energy.  As we move into a new decade, the question is whether the growing U.S. energy storage industry will be able to maintain its current path of rapid growth.  Ricardo F. Rodriguez of Navigant Research argued that all signs suggest that it will.

The Weekly Roundup of Climate and Energy News for the week ending February 7, 2020 follows.  Please forward the URL to anyone you think might be interested.

Politics and Policy

In his State of the Union address Tuesday night, President Trump never mentioned climate change, whereas in the Iowa caucus the topic seemed to be foremost in voters’ minds.  The Interior Department finalized plans on Thursday to permit drilling, mining, and grazing in areas of southern Utah that had once been protected as parts of Bears Ears or Grand Staircase-Escalante National Monuments.  According to Democrats on the House Science Committee, the Trump administration is withholding nearly a billion dollars appropriated for the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, which it has unsuccessfully tried to cut.

A key provision in the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement is that every five years all countries will set stricter goals for cutting greenhouse gas emissions.  Although February 9 is the deadline for submitting new goals ahead of this fall’s COP26 meeting, only two countries have done so.  The remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C is extremely small, equivalent to around eight years of current emissions.  Consequently, according to Carbon Brief, overall CO₂ emissions must fall to 45% below 2010 levels by 2030, to stay below 1.5°C, which will require emissions from coal-fired power plants to drop by around 80%.  A strongly worded open letter signed by almost 300 climate experts was sent to Australian prime minister Scott Morrison urging him to take action against climate change.

Like most environmental economists, Gernot Wagner is in favor of carbon taxes as a way to lower the use of fossil fuels.  However, he argues that carbon taxes alone are insufficient; they need to be coupled with appropriate policies, such as subsidizing alternative energy.  A report by Future Earth has found that five emergencies facing humans – climate change, extreme weather, species loss, water scarcity, and food production – are all interlinked, whereas governments are trying to solve them individually.  To be successful, they must be addressed in concert.  At Vox, David Roberts had an interesting and thought-provoking essay about the role of climate scientists in the policy debate for addressing those issues.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) wants federally owned utilities to build massive amounts of wind and solar to compete with private generators, but critics say that would complicate an already tricky transition to clean energy.  Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY) and Andy Levin (D-MI) on Thursday outlined a bill that seeks to establish a nationwide electric vehicle charging network within five years.

Climate and Climate Science

A recent paper in the journal Nature Climate Change added another factor to be considered when trying to explain Arctic amplification – chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs).  Even though they were phased out in 1989, some still persist in the atmosphere where they act as strong greenhouse gases.  Modeling studies suggest that they may be responsible for a large part of the rapid warming in the Arctic.  South American glaciers are rapidly melting, which poses a severe threat to those dependent on them for drinking, irrigation, and hydroelectric power.  Another study has documented the flow of warm ocean water beneath the ice tongue of a large glacier, accelerating its melting.

According to a new report from Climate Central, snowfall totals are dwindling during the shoulder seasons across much of the South, the Plains and the interior Mid-Atlantic regions.  A study published in the journal Nature Climate Change has found that biodiversity hotspots, which have given species a safe haven from changing climates in the past, will come under threat from continued climate change.  Bumblebee populations in North America and Europe have plummeted as a result of extreme temperatures, according to a study published Thursday in the journal Science.  A citizens’ science project in the UK has found that all but one of the 50 spring events tracked last year were early, amid warmer winter temperatures.

A new study in Science Advances found that ocean circulation, driven by increased wind speed, has increased since the 1990s.  Such an increase was anticipated, but was not expected to happen to this degree until the end of the century.  Numerous impacts are associated with the change.  The rate of sea-level rise along a large part of the U.S. coastline is continuing to accelerate, according to a new report from the Virginia Institute of Marine Science.  Warming waters and loss of sea ice north of Japan are having adverse effects on seals, phytoplankton, fish, and other sea life.

Europe just concluded its warmest January on record, edging out previous record holder January 2007 by 0.36°F.  It was also Earth’s warmest January on record, essentially tying with January 2016.  Antarctica logged its hottest temperature on record, with an Argentinian research station thermometer reading 18.3°C (64.9°F), beating the previous record by 0.8°C (1.4°F).  Hurricane Petra swept across Switzerland on Monday night and Tuesday morning, with winds around 100 mph, the highest recorded since records were started in 1981.

A study published in Nature Geoscience has concluded that climate models considering only gradual permafrost thaw, and not also abrupt thaw, are substantially underestimating carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.  At Wired, Matt Simon described the landscapes susceptible to abrupt thaw.  I recently put in a link about the current generation of climate models giving higher values of climate sensitivity.  Fred Pearce has a good (but long) analysis of why that is happening.

Energy

Greenhouse gas emissions from the European Union’s electricity sector fell 12% last year, the sharpest drop since at least 1990, due to reduced coal-fired generation.  In contrast, Japan plans to build as many as 22 new coal-fired power plants at 17 different sites in the next five years.  Last week I put in links to a commentary in Nature by Zeke Hausfather and Glen Peters about the RCP8.5 scenario for possible future emissions and Michael Mann’s reaction.  On Saturday, Bob Berwyn of Inside Climate News gave some of the background about this issue.

A Canadian startup is about to begin testing an idea that could provide an abundant source of carbon-free hydrogen from underground oil fields, providing the clean energy source at lower prices than available today.  At Yale Climate Connections, Will McCarthy addressed the pros and cons of enhanced geothermal energy systems.

Zeke Hausfather at Carbon Brief updated a fact-check article he wrote on May 13, 2019 about lifecycle carbon emissions from electric vehicles.  One conclusion is that emissions from a Nissan Leaf EV in the UK in 2019 were about one-third of the average conventional car.  On Tuesday, startup Rivian provided an update on the all-electric delivery van that it is building for Amazon, with delivery to begin in 2021.  A new lithium battery recycling facility is operable at the Eastman Business Park in Rochester, NY.

Because of the UK’s progress in adding renewable energy to its electrical grid they have moved their target date for closing all coal-fired power plants from 2025 to 2024.  Furthermore, they are moving the ban on selling new gasoline, diesel, or hybrid cars in the UK from 2040 to 2035 at the latest.  Consumers will only be able to buy electric or hydrogen cars, once the ban comes into effect.

The movement to all-electric buildings is moving much faster than anyone anticipated, although there has been some pushback.  Solar system prices dropped 90% over the last nine years, but the decline was tempered by American trade tariffs, leaving U.S. prices 45% above those in Europe and Australia, according to new research from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewables.

Potpourri

In The Guardian, Bill McKibben called out Canada’s government over their plans to expand tar sands mining.  Bloomberg’s Ben Steverman sat down with billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham, who is devoting almost his entire fortune to the fight against climate change, to discuss how the climate race is rapidly altering the world’s economic and investing future.  Harvard University faculty voted 179 to 20 to call on the school’s endowment managers to divest from fossil fuel companies, while Georgetown University’s president announced that the school will make no new investments in fossil fuels and will start withdrawing funds already invested in them.  Extinction Rebellion and Amazon Watch are making 12 short films to draw attention to the catastrophic damage being caused by human-induced global warming.  National Geographic presented the beautiful, but disturbing, photographs of methane gas bubbles from under Alaskan ice by a Japanese-born photographer living in Fairbanks.  At Yale Climate Connections, Samantha Harrington addressed the issue of how climate change affects mental health.  In a must-read article for anyone with children or grandchildren, author Jason Plautz wrote “…parents are left to walk a tightrope between being honest and being comforting, between empowering their kids and weighing them down with the responsibility of saving the world.”