Source:NHPR

New Hampshire Primaries: Who’s on Top?

By: Sarah Wilson and Kinley DuRant

What to know:

The New Hampshire primaries, some of the first pieces of the American presidential election process, took place on Tuesday, February 11^th. Within these state-wide elections, the people vote for their desired candidate to represent their respective political party in the National Conventions, set to take place in July (Democratic) and August (Republican) of this year. These primaries hold much significance to the future of the election as a whole, as it provides the first insight into which candidates are truly in the running for the nomination.

Here are some things to know:

• One of the very first primaries to be held in the process of choosing each party’s presidential nominee (2^nd to only Iowa’s caucuses)
•  New Hampshire elections are considered by many to be a major test for presidential candidates
  • they set the tone for future primary elections. Within this highly anticipated day
  • unsuccessful candidates commonly drop out, while previously overlooked candidates can become serious contenders with the increased media attention.
• A win in New Hampshire increases a candidate’s final primary count in all states by 27% – a number with the power to make, break, or revive a campaign.

On Tuesday, all eyes fell to New Hampshire’s Democratic primary in particular, anxiously waiting to see what candidates have the potential to stand in the fight against President Trump, who – to no one’s surprise – won New Hampshire’s Republican primary by a landslide. According to social media, the names to watch were Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Joe Biden, Pete Buttigieg, Amy Klobuchar, and Andrew Yang. However, the social media conversation leading up to the primary consisted of many interesting surprises, solid predictions, and false assumptions.

According to data pulled from January 13- Feb 2 (the 2 weeks leading up to the Iowa caucus), the most popular candidates online were Sanders (11 million total posts), Biden (9.9 million total posts), and Warren (5.3 million total posts). Of the three candidates, Warren held the best online reputation with 55.3% of the conversation being recorded as positive. Although a close measure, her majority positive sentiment was notable compared to both Sanders’s and Biden’s majority negative score. However, the candidate with the most impressive online attitude was Yang, with an overwhelming 72.9% positive sentiment. While only bringing in 836 thousand tweets in the 3 week span, Yang’s strong approval percentage put him as a potential front-runner in the New Hampshire primary. Buttigieg, coming in with 871 thousand posts, and Klobuchar, recording 746 thousand, were not to be counted out, but also not top candidates.

When the results on the New Hampshire primary were announced on Feb 11^th, it wasn’t unexpected that Bernie Sanders came in first, having won 9 pledged delegates and 25.7% of total votes. With the largest amount of online conversation (a lead of over 1 million), it was a reasonable prediction that Sanders would rack in the most counts on election day. However, the surprise was that neither Biden or Warren came in second place. Despite having 10 times (Biden) and 5 times (Warren) as many total posts as Buttigieg leading up to the primary, Biden finished fifth and Warren fourth, while Buttigieg stole second.

In third was Klobuchar, which also came out of left field, if one were to base their predictions on social media traffic alone. Klobuchar and Warren shared a nearly identical percentage of positive conversation. (around 55% positive). However, Warren held 7 times the post volume. From these numbers, one would assume Warren would have the lead over her component but, despite the odds, Klobuchar finished with 30,000 more votes and 6 more pledged delegates.

The arguably most surprising turn of events was the defeat of Andrew Yang. With a competitive post volume and a 17% gap between his leading sentiment score and his fellow components’, many were shocked to learn he finished in eighth place, with a mere 2.8% of votes and 0 pledged delegates. Yang dropped out of the race shortly following the closing of the polls in New Hampshire on Feb 11^th.

As the Democratic National Convention quickly approaches, the race for the presidency will only become increasingly more ruthless. While social media analytics can be extremely telling of a candidate’s potential success, the truth lies in the election results. During this election season, it’s important to remember that using social media to exercise your First Amendment right to political activism is great. Getting involved in politics online can spread awareness about important issues and encourage others to join in on the conversation. However, remember that as loud as your political voice may be in a tweet, there’s no better way to be heard than in the voting booth.