By: Matthew Fischer, Clemson Extension Livestock and Forage Economist, and Brian Beer, Clemson Extension Area Livestock and Forage Agent
The 2026 January Cattle Inventory Report was released by the National Agriculture Statistics Service (NASS) on January 30, 2026. Below are some insights from the report.
United States:
As of January 1, 2026, the US cattle inventory totaled 86.2 million head, slightly lower than the January 2025 inventory of 86.5 million head (See Figure 1). The reduction continues the downward trend in cattle inventory that started after 2019.
Figure 1:
(Source: USDA, NASS)
Cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million head, a relatively flat movement from the 37.3 million head on January 1, 2025. Beef cows were down 1% from 2025 at 27.6 million head. Beef cow replacements were up 1% in 2026 at 4.71 million head. This is the first increase in beef replacement inventory since the January 2021 Inventory Report.
Cattle over 500 lbs. varied. Heifers over 500 lbs. were 18 million head, down 1%. Beef replacement heifers were 4.71 million in 2026, up 1% from 2025. Steers over 500 lbs. were reported at 15.6 million, down 1%. Bulls over 500 lbs. were 2.01 million head, up less than 1% from 2025.
The 2025 calf crop was down 2% from 2024, estimated at 32.9 million head.
Dairy cow inventory was up 2% in 2026, reported at 9.68 million head.
South Carolina Inventory:
South Carolina’s cattle and calves inventory reported a 5% reduction from 2025. All cattle and calves’ inventory on January 31, 2026, was reported at 280,000, down 15,000 head from 2025. All cows and heifers that have calved were down 4% at 147,000 head, and South Carolina’s calf crop was 7% lower at 125,000 head. USDA did not provide inventory data for beef cows that have calved for South Carolina in the 2026 inventory report. The reduction in 2026 follows the slight increases in inventory and calf crop that South Carolina reported in 2025.
South Carolina marketing seasonality has continued to not follow expectations. The one exception with volume decreasing towards the end of each year. Expected depressed volume has continued due to contraction in the herd size.
Figure 2. Cattle Marketing Volume Seasonality
Takeaways:
The missing inventory number in the beef replacement category is frustrating. Given the inventory reductions across the reported categories, it is reasonable to speculate that the beef cow replacement inventory is also down (or at least not increasing). We just don’t know due to the missing data. Compared to other southern region states, Alabama and Florida saw cattle inventory increase (2% and 1% respectively), while Georgia and Tennessee are both down 1%. Virginia’s 2026 inventory was unchanged from 2025
The national market could be slowing down on liquidation. Is the 2026 cattle inventory less than 1% lower than last year, coupled with the increase in beef replacements, signaling an end to the liquidation phase of the cattle cycle? Maybe so; however, we still have a 75-year low in cattle inventory, and the year-over-year reduction in the calf crop may not sustain heifer retention in the coming years. An indicator moving forward can be the Cattle on Feed Reports and observing the portion of heifers that are on feed. Regardless, for the foreseeable future there are still fewer hooves on the ground than last year to supply the beef market.
You may review the 2026 January Cattle Inventory Report in its entirety at: https://esmis.nal.usda.gov/sites/default/release-files/795748/catl0126.pdf
